By putting leaders like Terengganu chief minister Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar to the fore, PAS now has legitimacy to be the “big brother” in its partnership with Bersatu in the opposition Perikatan Nasional coalition, analysts say.
KEMAMAN, Terengganu: The resounding victory by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia’s (PAS) candidate Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar in the Kemaman by-election in Terengganu could springboard the party’s ambitions at the federal level as analysts say it now has a suitable leader it can put to the fore for national leadership.
At the same time, the landslide margin attained by Dr Ahmad Samsuri is an indication that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s continuous efforts, through policy and campaigning to appeal to the Malay Muslim voters, have not borne fruit.
Beyond that, analysts also believe that the by-election highlights Barisan Nasional’s (BN) losing grip of the Malay heartland.
Dr Ahmad Samsuri won by a 37,220-vote majority in a straight fight against BN candidate and former army chief Raja Mohamed Affandi in the by-election that was held on Saturday (Dec 2).
The victory was a wider margin attained than when PAS’ candidate Che Alias Hamid won the seat in the 15th General Election (GE15) held a year ago.
Che Alias had clinched the seat then by a 27,179-vote majority against three other candidates but his win was later nullified by a court in Terengganu. The court cited that corruption had taken place with the aim of influencing voters during the campaigning period before GE15.
Dr Ahmad Samsuri is Terengganu chief minister. Known by locals as Dr Sam, he holds a PHD in aeroengine ignition and combustion from Leeds University and is seen as a non-cleric PAS leader who can appeal to voters across all ethnicities.
The contest over the weekend shone a spotlight on Dr Ahmad Samsuri who made national headlines after chairman of the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin said during the campaign that “it cannot be denied” that fielding him in Kemaman was a stepping stone to pave the way for Dr Ahmad Samsuri to be a future prime minister candidate.
PAS is a component party within the PN coalition along with Muhyiddin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan).
“So all these moves are strategic steps which can show to the rakyat (public) we have many leaders who are intelligent, capable, with praiseworthy behaviour, and that there are moderates and professionals (among us),” said Muhyiddin.
Speaking to reporters after his victory on Saturday, Dr Ahmad Samsuri played down the hype but did not rule out the possibility of taking on the role in the future.
“When I joined politics, it was never my target to hold such a high position (prime minister), but maybe in the future, if given the mandate by the party and people… I will consider it,” he said.
PAS NOW IN BETTER POSITION TO BE “BIG BROTHER” IN PN
While the question of being prime minister is something for PAS to consider for the long term, analysts say that the Kemaman by-election victory can - in the shorter term - alter the dynamics within the PN coalition.
Analysts believe that the Islamist party could use the election result - coupled with its coalition partner Bersatu's weaker political position - as an opportunity to place itself as the “big brother” and take over the leadership mantle in the coalition.
Although this is not recognised by PN officially, it is a widely held view that up till now, Bersatu has acted as the “abang” or “big brother” in the partnership and likely to be the party to produce a prime minister candidate if the coalition holds power, said political analyst Norshahril Saat, senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
This is evident in how for instance Bersatu’s secretary-general Hamzah Zainudin is the leader of the opposition, in spite of the fact that PAS has 43 seats in federal parliament while Bersatu only has 31 elected Members of Parliament (MPs).
“I think PAS also wants to make a statement … Bersatu, given the experience of its leaders, has been the so-called abang alongside PAS and this by-election win could be a signal and starting point for PAS to take over (the mantle),” said Dr Norshahril.
“For somebody like Samsuri to go to federal and play a role at the national level and the fact that Muhyiddin also endorsed (his leadership qualities) is a signal that Bersatu is happy and willing to accept PAS offering good candidates to lead at the federal level,” he added.
Bersatu is also hit by political instability, following Muhyiddin’s u-turn the previous week to defend his presidency at the party’s next internal polls, as well as how five of the party’s MPs have stated their support for Mr Anwar. Muhyiddin also continues to face money-laundering charges in court.
Political analyst Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia agreed that now would be an opportune time for PAS to raise its profile within PN.
“The by-election win signals to Bersatu and Tan Sri Muhyiddin that PAS is very strong and dominant in PN,” said Dr Mazlan.
“Now PAS has a leader to lead Perikatan Nasional – Dr Samsuri who has been referred to (by Muhyiddin himself) as a candidate for prime minister in the future,” he added.
However, Dr Wong Chin Huat, political scientist from Sunway University warned that in order for PAS to walk the talk, it must now put forth Dr Ahmad Samsuri by asking for instance that he be given a prominent position in the PN opposition’s portfolio committee, dubbed by local media as the coalition’s shadow cabinet.
“To showcase PAS' ability to govern a sophisticated economy and a multiethnic society, it is not enough for PAS to say, ‘we have a smart chief minister and he can be a good prime minister’. As states have very limited jurisdiction, a good chief minister material still needs to first prove that he is a good ministerial material (at federal level),” said Dr Wong.
He suggested that PN name Dr Ahmad Samsuri deputy opposition leader, to shadow the two deputy prime ministers in Mr Anwar’s cabinet. Prof Wong added that Dr Ahmad Samsuri, based on his scope as Terengganu chief minister, can consider focusing on issues related to rural development, economy as well as cost of living as these bread and butter issues impact the masses.
“PN Shadow Ministers have been largely underperforming, without division of labour and specialisation. Samsuri can make a difference. Without choosing a portfolio, a PM wannabe trying to be the jack of all trades may eventually hurt PN's image more,” he added.
ANWAR MUST CHANGE APPROACH AS BN CONTINUES TO BE LIABILITY IN MALAY HEARTLAND: ANALYSTS
The one-sided result and wider margin attained by PAS in Kemaman on Saturday also indicates that PM Anwar must consider altering his approach in trying to woo Malay voters, analysts said.
Malay Muslims constitute more than 60 per cent of voters in Malaysia, and remain a key demographic for whichever party is in power.
The state election results in August indicate that most Malays in the country supported PN, and in an effort to alter this, Mr Anwar has been keen to champion causes related to Islam such as his condemnation against Israel’s response to the Oct 7 Hamas incursion.
Mr Anwar himself campaigned in Kemaman for the BN candidate. During a rally by the unity government, he defended his stance.
Analysts said that this has come at the expense of Mr Anwar’s reform agenda, which includes pushing for policies which are needs-based rather than ethnic-based.
Dr Mazlan said that Mr Anwar’s attempts to gain ground among the rural Malay votes has not yielded anything, and that he should focus on economic policies to win over the middle ground.
“The pro Malay and Islam rhetoric used by PAS is very effective in the Malay heartlands. Anwar must rethink new strategies to regain Malay support,” he added.
Meanwhile, Dr Wong said that Mr Anwar can attempt to imitate PAS but he would remain to be seen as “fake” by the hardliner, conservative voters.
“In a divided society, most voters want more 'authentic products' and shun 'moderates' that try to imitate their radical rivals,” said Dr Wong.
“If he tries to leapfrog PAS, he would be pushing his liberal and ethnic-minority base to stay at home in protest,” he added.
Analysing the Kemaman results, Dr Wong said it is likely that PAS garnered a huge margin of victory because a “sizeable portion of BN and PH supporters” did not go out to vote.
He noted that the voter turnout in Kemaman had dropped by 15 percentage points as compared to last year, and that the proportion of voters who supported the BN candidate dropped from 34 per cent to 20 per cent.
“Since Samsuri's victory was seen as a foregone conclusion, they might not see the point to turn up at polling booths to save UMNO's and Anwar's face,” opined Dr Wong, referring to BN’s main component party the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO).
He added that PH’s main partner in the unity government coalition, UMNO, has also lost its appeal among Malay voters.
Kemaman constituency and the state of Terengganu was previously a BN stronghold but PN now holds all 32 state seats and eight federal seats in the northern east coast state.
“The only way to prevent a PN-led government is the revival of UMNO as a respectable moderate nationalist/conservative party,” said Dr Wong.
He opined that UMNO needs to push through a leadership transition to kickstart the revival.
“They need a leadership change that would get UMNO to seriously reinvent itself as a viable product between PN (its main rival) and PH (its best partner for a coalition government),” added Dr Wong.
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